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Science Response 2010/005

Assessment of Atlantic salmon in the Miramichi River (NB), 1998 to 2009

Context

The Miramichi River is considered to have the largest Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) run of eastern North America. Commercial fisheries were permanently suspended in the Maritime provinces in 1984. Aboriginal fisheries were historically conducted almost exclusively in the Northwest Miramichi (exploitation also occurs in the Southwest Miramichi and estuarial waters of the Miramichi River, downstream of the confluence of the two branches) and are of a smaller scale than the recreational fishery. Recreational catches of salmon between 1991 and 1995, the most recent years of available information, averaged over 24,000 fish annually.

Annual assessments of the Atlantic salmon stock of the Miramichi River have been prepared since 1982. The status of the resource was assessed on the basis of whether the conservation requirement was attained/exceeded (Chaput et al. 2001). Since 2001, estimates of returns of salmon have been provided to user groups and managers but the data, methods, and results have not been peer reviewed or published.

The Miramichi Watershed Management Committee is interested in annual assessments of Atlantic salmon in the Miramichi River. In 2008, the assessment was provided but the estimates from the model used by DFO Science did not conform to the perceptions of the abundance of adult salmon that year. In response to low counts of small salmon at numerous monitoring facilities in 2009 and the discrepancies in perceptions from previous years, DFO Fisheries and Aquaculture Management (FAM) requested that the assessment model and the 2009 assessment be peer reviewed. DFO FAM has also asked whether the present management measures are sufficient to meet the objective of attaining the conservation requirements for the river. A special science response process was initiated to consider these questions.

The assessment model was considered adequate for estimating the returns of Atlantic salmon to the Miramichi River. Conservation requirements after fisheries have only been achieved once during the 1998 to 2009 period (range 68% to 104%). Total estimated losses of eggs due to fishing have averaged 8%, 53% of the loss is attributed to removals of large salmon. The scope for increasing egg depositions using more restrictive fisheries management is greater on the Northwest branch of the Miramichi. It is anticipated that the return of large salmon in 2010 will be less than 50% of the number required to achieve conservation.

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