Research Document - 2002/069
Forecast for central coast sockeye, pink and chum salmon in 2002
By L.B. Holtby
Abstract
Considerable concern for the future of the Owikeno and Long Lake sockeye must be advised. There is only scant evidence that marine survival has improved for sockeye in this part of the coast. As the full impact of the recent reductions in escapement is felt over the next few years the total sizes of these two populations may reach very low levels. Thus, extreme caution is urged in avoiding all harvest, whether directed or incidental. Caution must also be urged for Kimsquit sockeye and probably for other small sockeye populations in this general area of the coast. If the poor survival has resulted even in part from the effects of the last El Ñino then the recent reports that another episode is developing do not bode well for the future of Central Coast sockeye.
Chum in the northern part of the forecast area appear to be stable and there may be a harvestable surplus in Area 8. The chum of Area 9 are depressed and the stock of Area 10 may be severely depressed. Enumeration effort is required in this area and the abundance of stocks to the south in Areas 11 to 13 should be scrutinized.
Even-year pink show the opposite geographical trend in abundance than do chum. Abundance is forecast to be at or near escapement targets except in Area 7 where it is forecast to remain well below the escapement target.
A summary of the forecasts and their characterization relative to established escapement targets is presented in the following Table:
| Species | Area | Stock | Escapement target | 2002 Forecast | 50% CI | Characterization of forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sockeye | Area 8 | Atnarko | 7.5´ 104 | 2.7´ 104 | 1.7´ 104-4.1´ 104 | Depressed |
| Sockeye | Area 9 | Owikeno Lake | 2.0´ 105 | 3.0´ 104 | 1.7´ 104-5.4´ 104 | Dritically depressed |
| Sockeye | Area 10 | Long Lake | 2.0´ 105 | 1.1´ 104 | 5.8´ 103-2.2´ 104 | Critically depressed |
| Chum | Area 7 | All | 5.2´ 105 | 3.0´ 105 | 2.1´ 105-4.4´ 105 | Below-target |
| Chum | Area 8 | All | 2.7´ 105 | 4.4´ 105 | 2.9´ 105-6.4´ 105 | Abundant |
| Chum | Area 9 | All | 1.5´ 105 | 4.2´ 104 | 2.4´ 104-7.3´ 104 | Depressed |
| Pink | Area 7 | all | 1.5´ 106 | 4.9´ 105 | 2.9´ 105-8.4´ 105 | Depressed |
| Pink | Area 8 | All | 1.5´ 106 | 3.9´ 106 | 2.0´ 106-7.4´ 106 | Abundant |
| Pink | Area 9 | All | 3.4´ 105 | 3.4´ 105 | 1.6´ 105-7.3´ 105 | Near-target |
| Pink | Area 10 | All | 6.6´ 104 | 4.3´ 104 | 1.6´ 104-1.2´ 105 | Near-target |
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