Research Document - 2002/020
Assessment of Cod in the Southern Gulf of St. Lawrence, February 2002
By G. A. Chouinard, L. Currie, G. Poirier, D.P. Swain A. Rondeau, H. Benoit, T. Hurlbut
Abstract
The directed cod fishery in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence was closed in September 1993. In 1999, a limited commercial fishery for 4T-Vn(N-A) cod was opened with a total allowable catch (TAC) of 6,000 t. The TAC has remained unchanged since 1999. Total landings in 2001 amounted to 5,794 t. Population abundance for ages 3 + in the 2001 annual research vessel survey indicated a slight decline over the estimate obtained in 2000. The trend in the research survey index since 1993 suggests that there has not been any increase in the abundance of the stock. Weights-at-age appear to be increasing but are low and natural mortality (M) appears to remain high. A value of 0.4 for M for the period since 1986 was again used in this assessment. The stock assessment indicates population biomass remains low, similar to the mid-1970s, and is near the lowest seen since 1950. The spawning stock biomass in 2002 is estimated at 84,000 t, compared to 87,000 in 2001 as estimated in the previous assessment. Because of the low spawning biomass, recruitment has been well below the historical average over the last decade. The 1995 and 1996 year-classes are estimated to be more abundant than those produced in 1993 and 1994 but the 1997 and 1998 year-classes are estimated to be low. The first estimate of the 1999 year-class is the lowest on record. Assuming continued high M and given the lower recruitment of recent years, catch projections now indicate the spawning stock biomass will decline in 2002 even with no fishing. Rebuilding of spawning biomass over the next 2-3 years is unlikely.
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