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Research Document - 2001/070

Population Status of Eastern Georges Bank Cod (Unit Areas 5Zj,m) for 1978-2001

By Hunt, Joseph and Hatt, Bette

Abstract

An analytical assessment of the Georges Bank cod stock in 5Zj,m was completed using updated catch-at-age and research survey indices. Catch at age was expanded to include ages 1-10. Results of the assessment provided statistically significant parameter estimates for the 2001 beginning-of-year population at ages 3 through 10. Bias and precision for the estimates were within acceptable limits. The adult biomass increased between 1995 and 2001 to about 19,900 t, primarily due to survival and growth of the 1992, 1995 and 1996 year-classes. Exploitation decreased from more than 60% in the early 1990's to about 25% in 1995 to 1997. It decreased further in 1998 to 18%, or slightly above the F0.1 reference level and about 12% in 1999-2000. Recruitment in recent years has been poor, with the 1992, 1995 and 1996 year-classes being moderately stronger than adjacent year-classes. The 1997-2000 year-classes appear to be very weak. Projections for 2001 indicate a yield of about 3,500 t at the F0.1 reference level. However, the stock biomass in 2002 will decline at this level of yield. Only at 2001 yields of 2,000 t or less is there a 50% or better chance of stable or increasing biomass. The adult stock biomass remains below a threshold of 30,000 t, above which chances of good recruitment are improved.

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