Terms of Reference

Northern (2J3KL) Atlantic Cod Assessment Framework

Regional Peer Review - Newfoundland & Labrador Region

October 16-20, 2023

St. John's, NL and Virtual Meeting

Chairperson: Mark Simpson

Context

Northern (2J3KL) Atlantic cod is one of 30 stocks that are subject to the Fish Stocks Provisions (FSP) that came into force through regulations on April 4, 2022. As Northern cod is below its Limit Reference Point (LRP), Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) is currently developing a Rebuilding Plan (RP) for this stock that meets the requirements of the FSP.

The last Framework meeting for Northern cod was held in 2015 (DFO 2016). Because science for Northern cod has advanced since that time, a framework process is required to review and implement revisions to the assessment approach for this stock. Results from this meeting will inform future stock assessments and the development of the RP for Northern cod.

Objectives

Review changes to the existing assessment of Northern cod related to:

• conflicting patterns from the Research Vessel (RV) and Sentinel survey indices
• inclusion of additional input data prior to 1980s
• the potential of incorporating juvenile survey data

Explore stock-recruit relationships and, if appropriate, update the LRP.

Review approaches to quantify the effects of Capelin and seals on the cod stock and, if appropriate, the potential integration of these effects into the assessment.

Expected Publications

• Science Advisory Report
• Research Document

Expected Participation

• Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) (Ecosystems and Oceans Science, Aquatic Ecosystems, and Fisheries Resource Management)
• Provincial Department of Fisheries, Forestry and Agriculture
• Academia
• Indigenous Groups
• Fishing Industry
• Non-government organizations

References

• Buren, A.D., Koen-Alonso, M, and Stenson, G.B. 2014. The role of harp seals, fisheries and food availability in driving the dynamics of northern cod. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 511: 265–284.
• Cadigan, N.G. 2015. A state-space stock assessment model for northern cod, including under-reported catches and variable natural mortality rates. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 73(2): 296–308.
• Cadigan, N. 2016. Updates to a Northern Cod (Gadus morhua) State-Space Integrated Assessment Model. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2016/022. v + 58 p.
• DFO. 2016. Proceedings of the Northern Cod Framework Review Meeting ; November 30 – December 4, 2015. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Proceed. Ser. 2016/031.
• DFO. 2019. Evaluation of the Limit Reference Point for Northern Cod (NAFO Divisions 2J3KL). DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2019/058.
• Koen-Alonso, M., Lindstrøm, U., and Cuff, A. 2021. Comparative Modeling of Cod-Capelin Dynamics in the Newfoundland-Labrador Shelves and Barents Sea Ecosystems. Front. Mar. Sci. 8: 579946.
• Regular, P.M., Buren, A.D., Dwyer, K.S., Cadigan, N.G., Gregory, R.S., Koen-Alonso, M., Rideout, R.M., Robertson, G.J., Robertson, M.D., Stenson, G.B., Wheeland, L.J., and Zhang, F. 2022. Indexing starvation mortality to assess its role in the population regulation of Northern cod. Fish. Res. 247: 106180.