Terms of Reference

Western Component Pollock Management Strategy Evaluation Review – Part 2: Modelling Review

Regional Peer Review – Maritimes Region

May 24–26, 2022
Virtual Meeting

Chairperson: Tara McIntyre

Context

Pollock (Pollachius virens) in Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization (NAFO) Divisions 4VWX5 comprise two population components: a slower-growing Eastern Component including Divisions 4V and 4W, as well as Subdivisions 4Xm and 4Xn, and a faster-growing Western Component (WC) including 4Xopqrs and Canadian portions of Division 5. The WC has been the main focus of past analytical assessments, but scientific advice on stock status and catch limits using Virtual Population Analysis (VPA) modeling became highly variable in the mid-2000s (Stone 2011).

In 2011, Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) fisheries managers and the fishing industry decided to manage Western Component (WC) Pollock using a risk-management approach and embarked on a Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE) process, with the help of government scientists and outside experts (DFO 2011). The MSE was intended to undergo review in 2016, but DFO resource limitations and the inception of an acoustic index resulted in a deferral of that review until 2021. This meeting comprises the second of three, and is expected to address the Population Modeling step in the revision of the WC Pollock MSE.

Objectives

The objective of this meeting is to review and update the population model for the WC Pollock MSE. Specifically:

• Present the 2010 Pollock VPA (ADAPT) with updated data series and discuss its performance and limitations.
• Present any proposed updates to the parameterizations of the VPA, explain the reasoning for the modification and discuss their performance and limitations of the resulting model.
• Present any alternate population model frameworks which could be applied to WC Pollock in an attempt to improve understanding of stock dynamics.
• Decide on a final population model to be applied to WC Pollock. If multiple models are deemed equally plausible given the current stock dynamics and uncertainties, a suite of candidate population models and parameterizations can be put forward for application in the MSE.

Expected Publications

• Proceedings
• Research Document(s)

Expected Participation

• Fisheries and Oceans Canada Science
• Fisheries and Oceans Canada Fisheries Management
• Provincial government representatives
• Indigenous communities/organizations
• Fishing Industry
• Non-government organizations

References

• DFO. 2011. Western Component (4Xopqrs5) Pollock Management Strategy Evaluation. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2011/054.
• Stone, H.H. 2011. 2010 Pollock Assessment Update for the Western Component 4Xopqrs5; pp. 21–96. In: J.M. Porter and V. Docherty, Chairpersons. Proceedings of 4X5 Pollock Management Strategy Evaluation Workshop – 2010. Can. Manuscr. Rep. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 2945.