Science Advisory Report  2013/015

Recovery potential assessment of Carmine Shiner (Notropis percobromus) in Canada

Summary

• The known distribution of the Carmine Shiner is limited to the Winnipeg River, at the base of Whitemouth Falls, and its tributaries (Whitemouth, Birch, Bird, and Lee rivers). 
• This species is common, but not abundant, in the midcourse reach of the Whitemouth River and lower reach of the Birch River. Current estimates of population abundance and trajectory are not available.
• In the Whitemouth River system, adult Carmine Shiner frequent shallow riffles with clear water with predominantly sand and gravel substrates. Little is known about nursery, rearing or feeding areas. Longitudinal and lateral connectivity and riparian habitat are likely important. Spawning occurs in relatively warm, clear water from mid-June into July.
• Persistence (i.e., maintaining healthy, viable populations in all locations where they currently exist) rather than recovery reflects a more appropriate long-term goal for this species.
• A population with persistence probability of about 97% over 100 years and quasi-extinction threshold of two adults (one female and one male), experiencing a 10% chance of catastrophe (a one-time decline in abundance of 50% or more) per generation, would require at least 8,884,000 (range: 6,137,000-14,480,000) adult Carmine Shiner (aged 1+) and 3,335 ha of suitable habitat.
• In the absence of additional harm, recovery efforts or habitat limitations, a population at 10% of Minimum Viable Population has a 95% chance of recovering within 12 years (if the probability of catastrophe is 10% per generation). Increasing either the fecundity rate or the annual survival rate of immature Carmine Shiner would have the largest proportional effect on recovery time.
• The greatest threat to the survival and persistence of Carmine Shiner is habitat degradation and loss, especially as a result of flow alteration.
• Carmine Shiner is particularly sensitive to perturbations that affect fecundity and survival in the first year of life.
• Activities that negatively affect key components of the life cycle and damage or destroy functional components of the habitat pose a very high risk to the survival and persistence of Carmine Shiner.
• There remain numerous sources of uncertainty related to Carmine Shiner: life history characteristics, including survival rates, population growth rate and abundance; habitat requirements, including the distribution and extent of suitable habitat, seasonal habitat use and spawning requirements; and an understanding of the environmental factors that limit their existence.

This Science Advisory Report is from the March 15-16, 2011 Recovery Potential Assessment of Carmine Shiner. Additional publications from this meeting will be posted on the Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) Science Advisory Schedule as they become available.

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