Science Advisory Report  2012/023

Assessment of the Status of 4X5Y Haddock in 2011

Summary

• Landings of 4X5Y Haddock in the fishing years ending 31 March 2010 and 2011 were 5,831 t and 5,370 t, respectively, relative to quotas of 7,000 t and 6,000 t. The quota in the 2011/12 fishing year remained at 6,000 t. A total of 2,518 t has been landed as of 19 January 2012, with a significant amount expected to be caught in the winter fishery.
• About 50 percent of the 4X5Y Haddock landings have come from Unit Area 4Xp in the last 4 years. This appears to be a fishery effect rather than a change in Haddock distribution.
• The summer research vessel survey biomass index in 2011 (47,874 t) was below the short (5 year: 50,470 t), medium (15 year: 51,434 t), and long-term (since 1970: 56,686 t) averages. However, it has been relatively stable over the past 8 years. 
• The weight at age of 4X5Y Haddock remains low, as there have been declines in both condition and length at age for most ages since the early 1990s. 
• Recent recruitment is variable, with poor year-classes in 2007 and 2008 and large year-classes in 2009 and 2010. 
• Haddock remain distributed throughout the 4X5Y area, with 38 and 35% of the historical stock area encompassing 75% of the estimated spawning stock biomass in 2010 and 2011 respectively.
• Based on a Sequential Population Analysis model, spawning stock biomass (SSB, ages 4+) has remained relatively stable over the past two decades. While this model suggests an increase in SSB in the past few years, its strong retrospective pattern (tendency of the model to overestimate biomass) indicates that these values are likely overestimates.
• Using a Sissenwine-Shepard production model, Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) was estimated to be 14,700 t and Spawning Stock Biomass at MSY (SSBMSY) was estimated to be 52,000 t. Biological reference points of 40% (20,800 t) and 80% (41,600 t) of SSBMSY were suggested as the limit reference point (LRP) and upper stock reference (USR), but will be reviewed again at the next framework.  
• Despite model uncertainties, 4X5Y Haddock spawning stock biomass is considered likely to be within the “cautious” zone, i.e., between the LRP and USR, and unlikely to be in the critical zone.
• Given the ongoing mortality of the strong 2006 year class, followed by two poor year classes (2007, 2008), and limited growth of 4+ fish, it is expected that SSB would decline in 2013 and 2014 without any fishing.
• The model was considered insufficient to provide meaningful projections for the next two years. However, for illustrative purposes, if a retrospective correction of 0.17 is applied (i.e., spawning stock biomass in the past three years is reduced by 17% in an effort to account for the retrospective), and catches of 5,500 t in 2012 (expected catch), 3,254 t in 2013 (F=0.25), and 3,226 t in 2014 (F=0.25) are assumed, SSB is projected to fall between the LRP and USR in 2012, 2013 and 2014.
• Given the continuing strong retrospective pattern in the model, and poor model fit to survey indices, a framework review for 4X5Y Haddock is recommended.

This Science Advisory Report is from the Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat regional advisory meeting of 19-20 January 2012 to review the assessment of 4X5Y Haddock. Additional publications from this process will be posted as they become available on the DFO Science Advisory Schedule.

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