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The Climate Change Science Initiative 2008 - 2012

FINAL REPORT

Fisheries and Oceans Canada
Ecosystems and Oceans Science Sector
Oceanography and Climate Science Branch

Table of contents

Synopsis

The Climate Change Science Initiative has succeeded in advancing the Departmental understanding of climate change impacts on Canada’s aquatic resources through the provision of relevant and timely science. By focussing on predictions and scenarios and impacts and vulnerabilities, the CCSI program has provided a direct foundation for next steps, the Large Aquatic Basin Risk Assessments being undertaken under the Aquatic Climate Change Adaptation Services Program. The leading edge science conducted on the emerging issues of hypoxia and acidification has advanced the issue forward so that climate change adaptation tools can begin to be considered. In conclusion, the Department’s Climate Change Science Initiative was a program that positioned the Department to be an effective federal contributor to the climate change file.

INTRODUCTION TO THE INITIATIVE

The Climate Change Science Initiative, (CCSI), was implemented as a pilot program by Fisheries and Oceans Canada, (DFO), starting in 2008-2009. The program acknowledged the importance of climate model development in predicting climate change’s impacts on Canadian waters (both marine and fresh), as well as the value of models in understanding those impacts at the ecosystem level. It also acknowledged that there are emerging issues related to climate change that have not been adequately researched. This is reflected in the three thematic areas under which projects would be developed:

PURPOSE

The purpose of the Climate Change Science Initiative was to develop scientific knowledge on climate change from which sound and timely scientific advice could be produced that would enable fisheries managers, and other internal clients of the Department to respond to the impacts of climate variability on marine and fresh water habitats.

OBJECTIVES

The objectives of the program are outlined in the Department’s Five Year Research Plan:

“DFO recognizes climate change will affect many aspects of its Science activities and that understanding and predicting climate change and its impacts is important. Thus, CCSI is designed to focus on national research priorities including improved predictions of climate change in Canadian waters (both marine and fresh); improved understanding of potential impacts on aquatic ecosystems; anticipate emerging issues that have not been adequately researched, and work with other sectors to identify potential socio-economic effects. As a nationally coordinated program, CCSI will complement the regional Ecosystem Research Initiatives and establish linkages with research conducted within Centres of Expertise. The goal of CCSI is to establish a program that will maintain core expertise and allow the development of national and international partnerships. Research aligned with three major themes will ensure CCSI will meet its expectations including: 1) understanding the role of oceans in regional climate, 2) assessing impacts of climate change on ecosystem composition, structure and function, and 3) investigating emerging issues that could impact ecosystem health. Initial prediction and scenario projects for the CCSI will focus on downscaling climate change scenarios for ocean-ice variability in the three basins (Atlantic, Pacific and Arctic) while efforts on emerging issues will focus on hypoxia and ocean acidification.”

PROCESS

The program was managed nationally and delivered regionally. A national theme coordinator led the development and implementation of projects under the thematic areas. Working groups of scientists with relevant expertise were formed for each project, with members from each of the Department’s six operational regions (Pacific, Central and Arctic, Quebec, Gulf, Maritimes, Newfoundland and Labrador).

Proposals were assessed for feasibility, national focus, synergies with the Department’s Centres of Expertise, collaboration potential and their contribution to the objectives of the CCSI. On this basis, funding was allocated to the projects for a period of three years. A summary of the projects follows:

Theme Project Region(s)
Predictions and Scenarios

Atlantic model

Atlantic Regional Climate Models Development within DFO’s Climate Change Science Initiative (CCSI)

Maritimes, Gulf

Pacific model

Developing a Regional Climate Model for the BC Continental Shelf

Pacific

Impacts and Vulnerabilities

Climate Impacts on Ecosystems

National Capital Region

Emerging Issues

Hypoxia

Hypoxia Assessment in Canadian Marine Waters

Pacific, Quebec, Maritimes

Acidification

Impact of ocean acidification on fisheries and the health of marine ecosystems in oceans around Canada

Pacific, Quebec, Maritimes

Coordination, Reporting and Publication

Coordination, Reporting and Publication

National Capital Region

KEY ACHIEVEMENTS (AS DERIVED FROM THE REGIONAL ASSESSMENT FROM ANNEX 1)

The achievements of the Climate Change Science Initiative are considerable in view of its modest funding (2008-09: $395K; 2009-2010: $320K; 2010 – 2011: $320K; and 2011-2012: $305K). Knowledge of climate change impacts throughout Canadian aquatic ecosystems was significantly enhanced through a series of freshwater and regional climate studies; and the successful leveraging of collaboration and expertise both within the Department and in the larger national and international scientific community.
Computer Models - Models were developed for key areas across Canada, including, for British Columbia, projected changes to summer and winter winds off the coast; estimates and projected changes of total freshwater discharge along the B.C. coast; the completion of a B.C. shelf model run for at least one decade; a multi-year run of the Strait of Georgia Regional Ocean Modelling System (including circulation and lower trophic level data); and a model to predict future river discharge from precipitation data.

For the Northwest Atlantic, computer models were advanced appreciably. For the Gulf of St. Lawrence and the Scotian Shelf, a 3D biogeochemical model including pH and carbonate system aspects was developed. In addition, the program achieved downscaling simulations for the Gulf of St. Lawrence, Scotian Shelf and Gulf of Maine with freshwater runoff, and finally, biogeochemical (BGCM) coupled models were fine-tuned.

Hypoxia and Ocean Acidification* - Knowledge of hypoxia and ocean acidification was vastly improved and is being applied to other Departmental priorities, including fisheries management (Snow Crab assessments/hypoxia) and policy (Arctic Council ocean acidification assessment).
Progress was made in augmenting our understanding of ocean acidification in impacted regions, including the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the British Columbia coast and the Arctic Ocean. In particular, analyses of pH in the estuary and Gulf of St. Lawrence were achieved, and for B.C., a first estimate of seasonal cycles of pH along the southwest coast of Vancouver Island was undertaken. In addition, a suite of carbon parameter data of the west coast of Canada was collected and in the Arctic, new knowledge of the Arctic Ocean outflow in a state of low calcium carbonate (CaC03) saturation was obtained. (*See definition of ocean acidification here)
The Department’sunderstanding of hypoxia was advanced with the compilation of dissolved oxygen and nutrients data for the entire North Atlantic. (*See definition of hypoxia here)
Additionally, the processes that facilitate acidification and hypoxia in ocean waters are better understood through the efforts of the CCSI by:

Publications – Fundamental knowledge from the CCSI has, or is, being published in 39 scientific journals that serve to extend the knowledge of ocean variability in Canadian waters. There have also been 48 presentations and 18 other scientific communication products resulting from the CCSI.
These include primary publication articles on:

Finally, the combined efforts of the expertise applied in the CCSI and by its collaborative community were useful in identifying priorities for future study. And, while the CCSI was focused on the extension of fundamental scientific knowledge, it also played a role in the development of tools that will be necessary for aquatic climate change adaptation. Notably, a new pH sensor (high temporal resolution and real-time data acquisition) for coastal buoys was developed, and is now awaiting deployment.

RESULTS

An evaluation of the initiative revealed that in addition to the use of scientific knowledge by internal client program areas within the Department a number of notable results were achieved. Highlights include:

  1. Regional climate models for the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans are beginning to be used to address regional issues.
  2. Current knowledge of hypoxia and ocean acidification is vastly improved and is being applied to other departmental priorities like fisheries management (Snow Crab/ hypoxia) and policy (Arctic Council ocean acidification assessment).
  3. All projects benefited from significant leveraging from other activities within the Department, with other federal agencies like Environment Canada, and with academia and international partnerships.
  4. Project leads identified future research and identified priorities, which would merit further investigation.
  5. As of October 2011, there have been over 39 publications, 48 presentations and 18 other communication products as a result of the first phase of the CCSI…others are pending.

In summary, the review indicated that the model of a nationally coordinated, regionally delivered program works effectively to deliver quality science that can be used to support Departmental mandate and policies across the country.

The project reviews were valuable in that they identified gaps in knowledge that require a renewed science effort to address the Department’s vulnerabilities to climate change. In this context, the Ecosystems and Oceans Sciences Sector developed a new science-based program for the Department that would use knowledge generation to facilitate strategies to adapt to the pressures of a changing climate.

The renewal of the Government of Canada’s Clean Air Agenda, predicated on the establishment of the Federal Adaptation Policy Strategy, included an investment of $16.5 million over five years for aquatic climate science at Fisheries and Oceans as announced by the Hon. Peter Kent, Minister of the Environment on November 8, 2011. The investment would fund Fisheries and Oceans’ Aquatic Climate Change Adaptation Services Program (ACCASP).

The foundation of the new ACCASP is risk based; it will define and implement adaptation tools and strategies that address the challenges of the Department and those of the Government of Canada in managing Canada’s aquatic resources. The ACCASP builds on the achievements of the CCSI to pursue a greater understanding of the physical, chemical, and biological processes that drive climate change.

A one-year extension of the piloted CCSI (2011-2012) provided continuity in the Department’s climate science activities, while the future of the Aquatic Climate Change Adaptation Services Program was secured and its activities rolled out.

CONCLUSION:

The Climate Change Science Initiative has succeeded in advancing the Departmental understanding of climate change impacts on Canada's aquatic resources through the provision of relevant and timely science. By focussing on predictions and scenarios and impacts and vulnerabilities, the CCSI program has provided a direct foundation for next steps, the Large Aquatic Basin Risk Assessments being undertaken under the Aquatic Climate Change Adaptation Services Program. The leading edge science conducted on Emerging Issues of hypoxia and acidification has advanced the issue forward so that climate change adaptation tools can begin to be considered. In conclusion, the Department's Climate Change Science Initiative was a program that positioned the Department to be an effective federal contributor to the climate change file.

ANNEX 1
Climate Change Science Initiative (CCSI) Regional Assessment

Introduction

The Fisheries and Oceans Canada Climate Change Science Initiative (CCSI) was a modestly funded science program, created for three fiscal years ending March 2011. To review this 'sunset' initiative, a questionnaire was prepared and distributed among the regional project science leads at the end of calendar year 2010. The following responses have been paraphrased for ease of presentation here. Under each heading are found key responses related to the issues under study, including the development of large scale and regional computer models for the projection of climate change trends and impacts, and the study of related issues, hypoxia and ocean acidification. The document also provides an overview of the collaborations undertaken within the Department, with other departments of the Government of Canada, with colleagues in Canadian academia and the international ocean science community to leverage the investment in the funded science.

Update: Subsequent to the preparation of the 2010 review, the Department undertook to further leverage its investment by extending the program for an additional fiscal year, in order to help address the knowledge gaps identified. As with the first three years, the 2011-2012 fiscal year extension featured extensive collaboration with related science programs to further leverage the science investment.

Key Program Notes

These notes, derived from the 2010 questionnaire, review the overarching benefits, features and issues related to the Climate Change Science Initiative.
Hypoxia and Acidification: Our knowledge of hypoxia and ocean acidification is vastly improved and is being applied to other Departmental priorities, including fisheries management (Snow Crab assessments/hypoxia) and policy (Arctic Council ocean acidification assessment).

Identification of Future Research Priorities: Project leads identified future research and priorities relating to departmental priorities that they believed merited further investigation.

Regional climate models: We are currently using regional climate CCSI models for the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans to address regional issues.

Significant Leveraging Extended Program Value: All projects benefited from significant leveraging from within the Department (e.g., Centre for Ocean Modeling and Development (COMDA), Atlantic Zone Monitoring Program (AZMP), Ecosystem Research Initiatives (ERI) and International Governance Strategy (IGS)), and from outside the Department including other Government of Canada departments, academia/Natural Sciences and Engineering Council of Canada (NSERC) and international colleagues (e.g., Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research (SCOR) Working Group 128, North Pacific Marine Science Organizations (PICES) and the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Primary Publications: There have been over 39 publications, 48 presentations and 18 other scientific communication products resulting from the first phase of the CCSI, and others are pending.

Setbacks: There were minor setbacks to the program as a result of aging equipment, delays or inability to acquire computer capacity for model development, human resources and reduced/delayed funding.

Key Deliverables Achieved

COMPUTER CLIMATE MODELS

OCEAN ACIDIFICATION*

(See definition of ocean acidification here)

HYPOXIA**

(*See definition of hypoxia here)

ANALYSIS

MANUSCRIPTS

OTHER

Setbacks and Non-achieved Deliverables

INFRASTRUCTURE

HUMAN RESOURCES

FUNDING

COMPLEX NATURE OF RESEARCH

Collaborations that Leveraged Support and Links to Other Projects

Regional Climate Model for the B.C. Continental Shelf

DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS AND SCENARIOS FOR THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC

CLIMATE IMPACTS ON ECOSYSTEMS

HYPOXIA

OCEAN ACIDIFICATION

Ancillary outputs of this work include a synthesis paper for the next Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment/IPCC (Dr. D. Ianson to co-author) and Canadian contribution to an Arctic Ocean acidification assessment for the Arctic Council (Dr. K. Azetsu-Scott).

Significant Gaps Identified in Scientific Knowledge

Outcomes, Impacts and Next Steps

BRITISH COLUMBIA CLIMATE MODEL

NORTHWEST ATLANTIC CLIMATE MODEL

HYPOXIA

OCEAN ACIDIFICATION

Publications, Presentations and Advice

Project Number of Publications Number of Presentations Reports and Advice

Regional Climate Models NW Atlantic

2

16

4

Regional Climate Model, BC Continental Shelf

10

Climate Impacts on Ecosystems

10

Ocean Acidification

8 (4 pending)

27

11

Hypoxia

9

5Footnote 7

3Footnote 8

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