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Research Document - 2014/020

Population Modelling of Black Redhorse (Moxostoma duquesni) in Canada

By Jennifer A.M. Young and Marten A. Koops

Abstract

The Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC) had assessed Black Redhorse (Moxostoma duquesnei) as Threatened in Canada (COSEWIC 2005). Here we present population modelling in support of the upcoming reassessment of the species, and incorporate new Canadian data collected since the previous assessment in 2005. Results include a sensitivity analysis and determination of recovery targets for population abundance and required habitat. Our analyses demonstrated that the dynamics of Canadian Black Redhorse populations are particularly sensitive to perturbations that affect survival of immature individuals (from hatch to age 4), and early adults (ages 2-8). Harm to these portions of the life cycle should be minimized to avoid jeopardizing the survival and future recovery of Canadian populations. Based on an objective of demographic sustainability (i.e., a self-sustaining population over the long term), we propose a population abundance recovery target of at least 1700 adult Black Redhorse (ages 4+), and 3900 juveniles, requiring 14.5 ha of suitable habitat. Targets for alternative risk scenarios ranged from ~800 adults and 6.5 ha to 5800 adults and 49 ha.

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