Research Document - 2004/025
Methods for Assessing Harvest Rules For Fraser River Sockeye Salmon
By Cass, A., Folkes, M., Pestal, G.
Abstract
This paper is part of a long-term initiative to review and revise the management of Fraser River sockeye salmon. The Fraser River sockeye spawning initiative began in early 2002, and has since evolved through a series of workshops and feedback from stakeholders. In this application of formal policy analysis, we develop a quantitative modeling tool for assessing harvest rules for Fraser River sockeye salmon given conservation needs and other management objectives. The quantitative model allows stakeholders to assess objectives in a consistent framework. Through a series of different simulation runs, optimal exploitation rates at different abundance levels can be explored, given assumptions about stock dynamics and preferences for different objectives. This paper describes the details of the modeling methodology, illustrates the range of possible analyses for two example stocks (Chilko, Quesnel), and summarizes the results of preliminary sensitivity analyses using specified performance measures. The estimated optimal exploitation rate for a particular stock or stock aggregate depends on the underlying population dynamics model and the objectives being optimized. By performing a large number of simulations using different assumptions, the sensitivity of model performance to assumptions is assessed. The modeling tool was developed to allow users easy selection of options depending on assumptions and different choices he or she is willing to explore.
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