Research Document - 2003/086

Eastern Hudson Bay Beluga Precautionary Approach Case study: Risk analysis models for
co-management

By Richard, P.R., Power, M., Hammill, M. and Doidge W.

Abstract

This case study attempted to develop modelling tools that would be useful in a co-management setting to develop a precautionary approach for the Eastern Hudson Bay beluga population. We developed and tested a stage-structured stochastic model that allowed the projection of population size over time given the uncertainty of population size and dynamics, and given management options involving a choice of hunting mortality and gender or age- (stage-) ratio of the catch. Uncertainty in initial population size was the single most important parameter in determining the uncertainty of projected population size over time. Projections were made over a period of 30 years. Risk was evaluated based on whether the population declined at any time during that period. Model runs showed that risk of decline was high if the population suffered hunt mortality in excess of a few tens of animals per year but a male-biased catch lessened this risk. At low population size, density dependence did not appear to matter to the risk probabilities.

Complete document (PDF, 224 KB)

Accessibility Notice

This document is available in PDF format. If the document is not accessible to you, please contact the Secretariat to obtain another appropriate format, such as regular print, large print, Braille or audio version.