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Research Document 1998/127

Assessment of the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence cod stock (3Pn,4RS) in 1997

By Alain Fréchet and Philippe Schwab

Abstract

This assessment of the 3Pn, 4RS cod stock is the first since 1994 to include a sequential population analysis. The only index of abundance used then, the Gadus Atlantica survey, were abandoned because of mixing issues between this stock and the adjacent 3Ps cod stock. The short time series of the Alfred Needler and the moratorium rendered any sequential population analysis risky. This assessment is thus based on five new indices of abundance; the Needler, both annual mobile gear sentinel surveys (July and October) and the longline and gillnet sentinel catch rates.

Despite this major change, the historical trends of this stock have not changed significantly. The stock would have reached it's historical low in 1994 and would have slightly increased since. The risk analysis indicates that the adult portion of the stock should increase by 20% in 1998 in the absence of any fishery whereas it would increase by only 11% if the quota would be set at 3,000 t. The adult portion of the stock would not increase if the 1998 quota would be set at 6,000 t.

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