Terms of Reference

Recovery Potential Assessment – Lake Chub - Liard Hot Springs and Atlin Warm Springs Designatable Units

Science Response Process – Pacific Region

April 14, 2020
Virtual meeting

Chairperson: Paul Grant

Context

After the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC) assesses an aquatic species as Threatened, Endangered or Extirpated, Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) undertakes a number of actions required to support implementation of the Species at Risk Act (SARA). Many of these actions require scientific information on the current status of the wildlife species, threats to its survival and recovery, and the feasibility of recovery. Formulation of this scientific advice has typically been developed through a Recovery Potential Assessment (RPA) that is conducted shortly after the COSEWIC assessment. This timing allows for consideration of peer-reviewed scientific analyses into SARA processes including recovery planning.

Within Canada, Lake Chub (Couesius plumbeus) are considered a cold-water fish species and are common in northern British Columbia. However, there are populations which are restricted to unique thermal spring environments and have evolved several unique physiological and life history traits that enable them to persist in these extreme environments.

In November 2018, COSEWIC assessed two designatable units of Lake Chub (Liard Hot Springs population and Atlin Warm Springs population) as Threatened because these populations occupy a small area of habitat in this warm spring complex, and risks posed by human activities and the introduction of invasive species, could result in extinction in a short period of time.

In support of listing recommendations for Lake Chub (Liard Hot Springs population and Atlin Warm Springs population) by the Minister, DFO Science has been asked to undertake an RPA, based on the national RPA Guidance. The advice in the RPA may be used to inform both scientific and socio-economic aspects of the listing decision, development of a recovery strategy and action plan, and to support decision making with regards to the issuance of permits or agreements, and the formulation of exemptions and related conditions, as per sections 73, 74, 75, 77, 78 and 83(4) of SARA. The advice in the RPA may also be used to prepare for the reporting requirements of SARA s.55. The advice generated via this process will update and/or consolidate any existing advice regarding these populations of Lake Chub.

This RPA will address, to the extent possible, each element of the terms of reference with the best science advice possible given the information that can be assembled. However, these populations have partial information available and no population abundance or trend information, curtailing the extend some elements can be adequately addressed. Where data limitations exist for elements, the RPA will identify knowledge gaps that will need to be addressed to provide the best science advice possible.

Objective

To provide up-to-date information, and associated uncertainties, to address the following elements:

Biology, Abundance, Distribution and Life History Parameters

Element 1: Summarize the biology of Lake Chub.

Element 2: Evaluate the recent species trajectory for abundance, distribution and number of populations.

Element 3: Estimate the current or recent life-history parameters for Lake Chub.

Habitat and Residence Requirements

Element 4: Describe the habitat properties that Lake Chub needs for successful completion of all life-history stages. Describe the function(s), feature(s), and attribute(s) of the habitat, and quantify by how much the biological function(s) that specific habitat feature(s) provides varies with the state or amount of habitat, including carrying capacity limits, if any.

Element 5: Provide information on the spatial extent of the areas in Lake Chub distribution that are likely to have these habitat properties.

Element 6: Quantify the presence and extent of spatial configuration constraints, if any, such as connectivity, barriers to access, etc.

Element 7: Evaluate to what extent the concept of residence applies to the species, and if so, describe the species’ residence.

Threats and Limiting Factors to the Survival and Recovery of Lake Chub

Element 8: Assess and prioritize the threats to the survival and recovery of the Lake Chub

Element 9: Identify the activities most likely to threaten (i.e., damage or destroy) the habitat properties identified in elements 4-5 and provide information on the extent and consequences of these activities.

Element 10: Assess any natural factors that will limit the survival and recovery of the Lake Chub.

Element 11: Discuss the potential ecological impacts of the threats identified in element 8 to the target species and other co-occurring species. List the possible benefits and disadvantages to the target species and other co-occurring species that may occur if the threats are abated. Identify existing monitoring efforts for the target species and other co-occurring species associated with each of the threats, and identify any knowledge gaps.

Recovery Targets

Element 12: Propose candidate abundance and distribution target(s) for recovery.

Element 13: Project expected population trajectories over a scientifically reasonable time frame (minimum of 10 years), and trajectories over time to the potential recovery target(s), given current Lake Chub population dynamics parameters.

Element 14: Provide advice on the degree to which supply of suitable habitat meets the demands of the species both at present and when the species reaches the potential recovery target(s) identified in element 12.

Element 15: Assess the probability that the potential recovery target(s) can be achieved under current rates of population dynamics parameters, and how that probability would vary with different mortality (especially lower) and productivity (especially higher) parameters.

Scenarios for Mitigation of Threats and Alternatives to Activities

Element 16: Develop an inventory of feasible mitigation measures and reasonable alternatives to the activities that are threats to the species and its habitat (as identified in elements 8 and 10).

Element 17: Develop an inventory of activities that could increase the productivity or survivorship parameters (as identified in elements 3 and 15).

Element 18: If current habitat supply may be insufficient to achieve recovery targets (see element 14), provide advice on the feasibility of restoring the habitat to higher values. Advice must be provided in the context of all available options for achieving abundance and distribution targets.

Element 19: Estimate the reduction in mortality rate expected by each of the mitigation measures or alternatives in element 16 and the increase in productivity or survivorship associated with each measure in element 17.

Element 20: Project expected population trajectory (and uncertainties) over a scientifically reasonable time frame and to the time of reaching recovery targets, given mortality rates and productivities associated with the specific measures identified for exploration in element 19. Include those that provide as high a probability of survivorship and recovery as possible for biologically realistic parameter values.

Element 21: Recommend parameter values for population productivity and starting mortality rates and, where necessary, specialized features of population models that would be required to allow exploration of additional scenarios as part of the assessment of economic, social, and cultural impacts in support of the listing process.

Allowable Harm Assessment

Element 22: Evaluate maximum human-induced mortality and habitat destruction that the species can sustain without jeopardizing its survival or recovery.

Expected Publications

• Science Response

Expected Participation

• Fisheries and Oceans Canada (Science, Fisheries Protection and Ecosystems Management Branches)
• Province of BC
• Academia
• First Nations
• Industry (Recreational fishing and hydroelectric
• Other invited experts (environmental non-government organizations)

References

COSEWIC. 2018. COSEWIC assessment and status report on the Lake Chub Couesius plumbeus, Liard Hot Springs populations and Atlin Warm Springs populations, in Canada. Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada. Ottawa. xvi + 50 pp. In Press.