Language selection

Search

Terms of Reference

Stock Assessment and Management Advice for BC Pacific Herring: 2017 Status and 2018 Forecast

Regional Peer Review Process – Pacific Region

October 17-18, 2017
Nanaimo, BC

Chairperson: Dr. John Neilson

Context

Pacific Herring is a pelagic species inhabiting inshore and offshore waters of the North Pacific from California to the Bering Sea. Herring annually migrate between feeding and spawning areas. Pacific Herring in British Columbia are managed based on five major stock management areas: Haida Gwaii, Prince Rupert District, Central Coast, Strait of Georgia, and West Coast of Vancouver Island (WCVI), and two minor stock management areas: Haida Gwaii Area 2W and WCVI Area 27.

The assessment of current Pacific Herring abundance and forecasts has been completed annually since the late-1980s for each of the five major and two minor stocks in British Columbia. Since 2006, the assessment has utilized an integrated statistical catch-age model fitted to commercial catch, proportions-at-age and a fishery-independent survey of herring egg deposition (spawn index) to estimate biomass and recruitment, and to generate 1-year forecasts of spawning biomass (Martell et al, 2012; DFO 2013). Martell et al. (2012) introduced two revisions to the management procedure (MP): model-estimated fishery cutoff values, and model-estimated q (catchability) for the dive survey. This modified MP is termed “AM1”. Since the introduction of AM1, concerns have been raised regarding application of this MP relative to the previous MP (AM2: fixed cutoffs and the assumption that q=1 for the dive survey), as well as the potential implications of the model for fisheries management (e.g., higher estimates of spawning abundance in some areas under AM1 and potential to open fisheries at lower biomass levels than under the previous Management Procedure, AM2).

In 2015 and 2016 herring stocks were assessed using both AM1 and AM2 parameterizations of the integrated statistical catch-age model, and Science Responses included outputs from both model cases.  The 2016 Science Response also included a table developed by the Herring Technical Working Group that describes the main attributes and limitations of AM1 and AM2, intended to address concerns arising both from previous CSAS processes about implementation of each approach.  Although both MPs have been peer-reviewed through CSAS and both have been provided as science advice for Pacific Herring in previous years, identifying MPs robust to uncertainties in parameters such as q (catchability) requires dedicated simulation-evaluation analysis, which is part of the multi-year renewal of the management framework (Pacific Herring Renewal) initiative. DFO has committed to Pacific Herring Renewal to address a range of challenges facing the fishery. Science work to support this initiative includes two streams: the Operational and Strategic Streams. For the Strategic Stream, a management strategy evaluation (MSE) process is underway to conduct simulation-testing of alternative MPs to identify a procedure that is compliant with DFO’s Fishery Decision-Making Framework Incorporating the Precautionary Approach (the PA framework) (DFO 2009) and characterize trade-offs among conservation, economic and socio-cultural objectives.  Until results from these analyses are available, Pacific Herring stocks will continue to be assessed using the current stock assessment model. For 2017, results from both AM1 and AM2 model configurations will be provided as science advice.

A spawning biomass-based Limit Reference Point (LRP) of 0.3B0 was recommended for the major Pacific Herring stocks during a CSAS Regional Peer Review, February 7-8, 2017. This recommendation was based on results of production analyses andis consistent with international best practice recommendations (DFO 2017).  In addition to the annual assessment and forecast, Fisheries Management (DFO) has requested updated advice from DFO Science on the current biomass and status of Pacific Herring relative to the recently established LRP.

The assessment, and advice arising from this Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat (CSAS) Regional Peer Review (RPR), will be used to support the development of the 2017/18 Integrated Fisheries Management Plan (IFMP). 

Objectives

The following working paper will be reviewed and will provide the basis for discussion and advice on the specific objectives outlined below:

Cleary, J.S., Hawkshaw, S., Grinnell, M . Stock assessment for Pacific Herring (Clupea harengus) in British Columbia in 2017 and forecast for 2018. CSAP Working Paper 2017PEL01.

Guided by the DFO Sustainable Fisheries Framework, the following objectives for this assessment have been established:

  1. Present data and assessment model updates:
    1. Present modifications and updates to integrated statistical catch-age model equations and its AD Model Builder code. Investigate comparisons between old and new model code using a bridging analysis.
    2. Present herring spawn-on-kelp (SOK) fishery data and methods for including SOK data as input data for each stock area.
    3. Present parameterization of maturity and fishery selectivity ogives and investigate interactions between these and other model-estimated parameters.
  2. Assess the current status of Pacific Herring for the five major stocks using the integrated statistical catch-age model.
  3. Present trends in Pacific Herring biomass, depletion, and recruitment for each major stock; including trends in biomass for each major stock relative to the LRP.
  4. For the minor stock areas, present stock status updates using available spawn survey data and biological samples.
  5. Evaluate the consequences (including potential risk of exceeding harvest rates prescribed by both modelling approaches) of different total allowable catch levels for 2018 against probabilistic metrics to accommodate uncertainty in the advice.

Expected publications

Expected Participation

References Cited and Additional Information

DFO  2009. A fishery decision-making framework incorporating the Precautionary Approach.

DFO  2012a. A review of the Pacific herring assessment framework and stock assessment and management advice for Pacific herring 2011 status and 2012 forecasts, September 7-9, 2011. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Proceed. Ser. 2011/062.

DFO 2012b. Proceedings on the Regional Peer Review of the Evaluation of Data and Model Assumptions on the Calculation of Management Parameters using the Pacific Herring Assessment Model (ISCAM); June 27 & 28, 2012. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Proceed. Ser. 2012/043.

DFO 2013. Regional Advisory Meeting on the review of the Stock Assessment and Management Advice for the British Columbia Pacific Herring Stocks: 2012 Status and 2013 Forecasts; September 5 & 6, 2012. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Proceed. Ser. 2013/009.

DFO  2015. Candidate Limit Reference Points as a basis for choosing among alternative Harvest Control Rules for Pacific Herring (Clupea pallasii) in British Columbia. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2015/062.

DFO  2016. Stock Assessment and Management Advice for BC Pacific Herring: 2016 Status and 2017 Forecast. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Rep. 2016/052.

DFO  2017. The Selection and Role of Limit Reference Points for Pacific Herring (Clupea pallasii) in British Columbia. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2017/030.

Martell, S.J., Schweigert, J.F., Haist, V., and Cleary, J.S. 2012. Moving towards the sustainable fisheries framework for Pacific herring: data, models, and alternative assumptions; Stock Assessment and Management Advice for the British Columbia Pacific Herring Stocks: 2011 Assessment and 2012 Forecasts. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2011/136. xii + 151 p.

Notice

Participation to CSAS peer review meetings is by invitation only.

Date modified: