Science Advisory Report  2012/059

Stock assessment update for Bocaccio (Sebastes paucispinis) in British Columbia waters for 2012

Summary

• updates the 2009 published assessment with four more years of data, the inclusion of recreational catch, an additional survey, and minor technical modifications.
• is based on the reference case with a median estimate of B₂₀₁₂/K (the ratio of current stock size to the unfished stock size) of 3.5% (90% confidence limits of 1.4-9.1%). The median estimate of B₂₀₁₂/B_msy (the ratio of current stock size to that at maximum sustainable yield) is 7.0%, with 90% confidence limits of 2.9-18.2%.
• estimates the stock to have a 99% probability of being in the provisional DFO Precautionary Approach critical zone, whereby B₂₀₁₂<0.4*B_msy.
• explored a large number of sensitivity runs to test many of the model assumptions. While there was considerable uncertainty in these runs, all were consistent in indicating that B₂₀₁₂<0.4*B_msy.
• indicates, in the reference case, that there is at least a 90% likelihood that the population has continued to decline since 2002, despite total catches being among the lowest in the history of the fishery.
• indicates that current harvests are approximately equal to the median estimate of replacement yield.
• provides population projections over 5, 20 and 60 years under varying assumptions of fixed catches and makes predictions relative to the PA provisional reference points of 0.4*B_msy and 0.8*B_msy.

This Science Advisory Report is from the May 29, 2012 meeting on the updated assessment of Bocaccio Rockfish in British Columbia. Additional publications from this process will be posted as they become available on the Fisheries and Oceans Canada Science Advisory Schedule.

Complete document (PDF, 235 KB)

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